Thursday, November 14, 2019, 4:00pm to 5:30pm
UPDATED: T-G-50, Executive Education Classroom (Taubman Building, Ground Floor)
"The Psychology of Overconfidence:
On the difficulty of being both wrong and knowing it"
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2019
*UPDATED LOCATION* Taubman Ground Floor, T-G50, Exec Ed Classroom
Harvard Kennedy School
The Leadership: Influence and Decision Making speaker series provides an opportunity for scholars to share and learn about cutting edge research related to the topic of leadership, broadly defined.
You are invited to attend on Thursday, Novemnber 14, 2019 with guest speaker Don Moore, Professor and Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication, University of California Berkeley. Refreshments served!
Overprecision is being too sure that you are right. This talk begins by distinguishing overprecision from two other forms of overconfidence: overestimation and overplacement. Overprecision is the most robust and least understood form of overconfidence. In this talk, Don Moore will document its role in self-assessment, macroeconomic forecasts, and high-stakes bets. This leads to an exploration of what it means to be overprecise: the challenge of being both wrong and knowing it; that is, holding beliefs about which one is appropriately skeptical, and well-calibrated about the possibility that one’s beliefs are incorrect. He then offers a new theory to account for the evidence and test some of its novel predictions.